With Jagan in jail, can YSR Congress grab victory?

HYDERABAD: Soon after Jaganmohan Reddy’s arrest, all eyes were riveted on his YSR Congress Party whether the arrest would turn the tide more pronouncedly in its favour in the impending bypolls. His close aides are sure that the party will sweep the polls with a wave of sympathy in its favour but others are not so sure.
The question doing the rounds is whether a sweeping electoral victory is possible for a fledgling party whose president is cooling his heels in jail.“Jagan is no saint and there is little evidence to suggest that the CBI is engaged in a witch-hunt at the behest of Congress. I don’t think that there is a groundswell for him just because he is behind bars,” says Jayasree, a rights forum leader from Kadapa.
“Jagan is the only leader capable of engineering defections after the poll results on June 15. As long as he is in jail, it will be difficult for the YSR CP to get more MLAs to its side,” political analyst Sudershan Reddy explained. In fact, his arrest would apply brakes to the poaching of legislators from the Congress and TDP, he analysed.
Till the arrest of Jagan on May 28, the YSR CP candidates were banking on Jagan’s charisma and sympathy for the YSR family and the pre-poll surveys had suggested that the party would have a cakewalk in a majority of the seas. But the arrest has exposed the chinks in YSR CP’s armory. Senior analysts believe the absence of a second rung leadership and lack of organizational structure could hit the party hard.
Though Vijayamma has taken charge of the campaign, her abilities to inspire the cadres are yet to be tested. “Jagan’s arrest is certainly a setback to the party. No party can run a poll campaign without its chief. But we are confident that Vijayamma would fill the void and take us to the victory podium,” former minister and Ongole YSR CP candidate Balineni Srinivasa Reddy said.
However, Vijayamma comes across as a bad orator even though she seems to strain every nerve to strike a chord with the masses by whipping up a sympathy wave for her party.
Her daughter Sharmila gives the impression of being an emerging politician but it remains to be seen whether she can take over the mantle from Jagan who, undoubtedly, is the face of the party and crowd-puller. Also, the ground reality is different what with the YSR CP yet to build the’network’ at the field level, which is very crucial in election management.
Although a third group had emerged in villages in the form of PRP in the last general elections, it had failed to encash the situation chiefly due to lack of such election management network. The YSR CP could meet the same fate.
“We have to train the cadres to face odd situations as there is every possibility of Congress and TDP going in for match-fixing to share the votes within themselves with a view to defeat us,” agreed party leader Janga Krishna Murthy.
But a certain section of voters are sympathetic towards the YSR CP nominees because of the welfare programmes launched by YSR. Also, the arrest of Jagan could polarize the Reddy community.
There is no doubt that the party desperately needs a strong leadership to run the party for next two years, but what could gladden the hearts of the cadres is that Jagan had already toured all the constituencies except Parkal in Telangana before he was sent to Chanchalguda jail.
Allagadda party candidate Shobha Nagireddy says her party will sweep the polls. “People are aware that Jagan’s arrest was a conspiracy by Congress, TDP and CBI,” she says.
On the other hand, TDP and Congress say Jagan’s arrest has hardly impacted the voters. “Their worry is not about Jagan’s arrest. They are worried about their local problems, acquisition of land for development projects and non-availability of water,” Payakaraopet TDP candidate Chengala Venkata Rao points out.
Congress candidate G Sumana exudes confidence that Congress would win the elections irrespective of Jagan’s arrest.